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小测验:这是你对金钱的看法

人类的大脑不是一个理性的经济行动者. 当面对不确定性时, 即使是最优秀的投资头脑也可能把钱扔得一无是处, 一有麻烦的迹象就卖掉,或者做出各种各样的混乱的财务决定.

bet356手机版日常决策中的这些缺陷, 以色列心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)和阿莫斯·特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)在20世纪70年代首次记录了这一现象, 由此产生了行为经济学这一领域, which aims to mitigate the effects of these embarrassing foibles by heightening our awareness of them.

做下面的八个问题测试,看看你的头脑有多清醒 在财务决策方面呢. Then read on to check 你r answers and learn more about some of the most common—and costly—pitfalls.


1. 你买了XYZ公司的Stock. and, after several lackluster earnings reports, find it’s down 25% from what 你 paid for it. 哪一种做法是最好的?

   A. 重新评估Stock,就像它是一个潜在的投资

   B. 持有Stock,直到它至少回到你支付的价格

2. A year after buying two particularly promising stocks, one has surged while the other has slumped. 你如何评价你的表现?

   A. 你为自己选股的敏锐感到庆幸

   B. 你承认你只是一对

3. 你的投资顾问Advice用一些新Stock来取代一些长期持有的Stock, 虽然表现不佳, 投资. 你该如何反应?

   A. 你继续持有老Stock,因为它们一直是你投资组合中值得信赖的一部分

   B. 你倾听你的顾问的推理,考虑新Stock而不是旧Stock

4. 你继承了10万美元现金. 你的下一步是什么?

   A. 当你评估和重新评估可能的投资时,你以现金的形式持有遗产

   B. 你根据现有退休计划的资产配置进行投资

5. 在最近的股市调整之后,你重新审视自己的投资计划. 哪一种做法是最好的?

   A. 保持你当前的分配,因为你的长期目标没有改变

   B. Majorly reduce 你r exposure to equities in an effort to insulate 你r portfolio against future shocks

6. 你的投资组合连续两年获得10%的收益, 在第三年损失一半利润之前. 你如何应对这些起伏?

   A. 你不会为损失而烦恼,也不会提醒自己,你的投资组合总体上还是上涨的

   B. 你不高兴了,就把钱换成现金,以尽量减少未来的损失

7. 虽然你.S. 科技股帮助你的投资组合实现了两位数的年增长率, 你的财务顾问现在认为这个行业被高估了. 你是做什么的?  

   A. 你以多元化的眼光探索其他行业

   B. 你淡化导师的担忧,并加倍研究技术趋势

8. 你会看到一个电视采访者称赞一位CEO开发的几款新产品. 你是否应该根据细分市场来购买Stock?

   A. 是的,因为来自可靠来源的消息可能会影响市场

   B. 不,因为多种因素决定了Stock的表现


答案——以及它们为什么重要

1. 答:一个 重新审视投资是正确之举. 然而, many investors will instead hold a stock until it reaches a value they have in their head (the price they paid for it, 说, 或者之前的高点)-行为偏差被称为 锚定. 和一个数字结婚会影响你的判断力, 即使你所定的价格与你的决定无关.

在一项开创性的研究中, Kahneman and Tversky spun a wheel containing the numbers 0 through 100 and then asked their research subjects what percentage of the United Nations is made up of African countries. 当轮子落在10, 平均估计为25%, 而当数字达到65时, 平均估计为45%. 轮子上的数字与手头的问题毫无关系, 但它们还是影响了研究对象的估计.

2. 答:B 诚实的评估会显示你的业绩乏善可陈. 然而, many investors will instead recall how they knew the surging stock was going to be a winner all along, while conveniently forgetting they were equally hopeful about the second stock—a failure of logic known as 后见之明偏见.

事实上, people consistently misremember the odds they assigned to an outcome once that outcome is known. 在一个里程碑式的研究中, researchers surveyed groups of university students prior to former President Richard Nixon’s breakthrough trip to China in 1972 about the probability of certain events taking place, 比如与毛泽东主席面对面的会面. 旅行结束后又进行了一次调查, the students often misremembered their predictions in light of what actually transpired—invariably giving themselves higher marks than were warranted.

3. 答:B |在理论上, 每个头寸都必须在你的投资组合中不断获得自己的位置, 但在实践中, bet356手机版常常仅仅因为已经拥有某样东西而高估它的价值——这种心理错误被称为 禀赋效应. One way to counter the 禀赋效应 is to ask 你rself whether the reason 你 bought a particular investment is still valid. It’s possible there’s a more appropriate investment for 你—provided 你’re willing to let go of what 你 already own.

4. 答:B |投入你的100美元,在市场上工作也许是个不错的选择, 因为从长远来看,现金的表现往往不及股市, 即使是在市场高峰时投资. 然而,许多投资者都遭受了损失 分析瘫痪, or choice overload, which can cause them to sit on the sidelines rather than get in the game. 事实上, a 2000 study found shoppers were 1½ times more likely to visit a display showcasing a large number of jams—but 10 times more likely to make a purchase from one with a more-limited selection.

5. 答:一个 当涉及到财务决策时, 从历史上看,长期趋势比短期事件更可靠. 毕竟, it took only 19 trading days after the events of September 11 for the market to return to pre-9/11 levels.

尽管如此,投资者经常忘记这一事实是因为 近因效应”(或近期偏差),或者bet356手机版倾向于对最近发生的事件给予更多的重视. 如果市场一直在上涨, 例如, 因此,bet356手机版倾向于认为持续上涨的可能性更大, 然而,最近的一次调整可能会让bet356手机版相信,另一次调整就在它后面.

6. 答:一个 你从10%的损失中感受到的痛苦应该和你从10%的增长中感受到的快乐一样多, 但研究人员得出结论,失去亲人的痛苦大约是失去亲人的痛苦的两倍, 心理上来说, 从一种等价的收益中获得快乐,这种现象被称为 损失厌恶.

就像许多行为偏差一样, 这种思想的根源通常被归因于人类存在的早期, 一天的食物损失可能意味着灾难, 然而,多吃一天的食物可能对你的生存几率没什么帮助.

7. 答:一个 bet356手机版的决策取决于 确认偏误—the unconscious tendency to gravitate toward evidence that supports what we already believe. 换句话说, 如果你已经大量投资科技股, 也许是时候挑战你的禀性了, 不确认. 确认偏误是bet356手机版行为抽搐中最有害的一种, evident in everything from political polarization to overconcentration in a particular asset class.

8. 答:B | Company fundamentals are a more reliable barometer of a stock’s potential performance than the 24/7 news cycle. 不幸的是, humans more often judge probabilities based on how easily corroborating information comes to mind—a tendency known as 可获得性偏差.

在这个特殊的案例中, a compelling TV appearance by a CEO risks crowding out other information that perhaps has a greater bearing on the company’s stock. 事实上, 可获得性偏差 is one reason people believe they’re much more likely to win the lottery than they actually are, as those who hit the jackpot are heavily promoted while the multitudes who come up empty go unmentioned.

接下来你能做什么

重要的信息披露

过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果.

投资涉及包括本金损失在内的风险.

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. 这里提到的投资策略可能并不适合所有人. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. 但是,它的准确性、完整性或可靠性不能得到保证.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results 你 can expect to achieve.

Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

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